Light to moderate (even heavy at times) snow is closing in on the tri-state, with flakes being reported as close as Northern Kentucky. Expect the leading edge to reach the metro by 1am, and the east side by 3am. Once the snow commences, it will become steady rather quickly. Given the very cold air/ground temps, all snow will accumulate, even on treated surfaces. As I’ve been saying all day, I expect all schools to be closed Tue, with many having delays/closings on Wed as well. Take it slow out there tomorrow if you ABSOLUTELY have to drive.
The National Weather Service has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING, effective midnight tonight through 6pm Wed. An area of low pressure, currently developing to our south, will begin to slide NE towards the tri-state. Out ahead of it, widespread precipitation will develop in the form of snow. I expect the first flakes to hit the ground between 2-3am, quickly becoming steady. The snow, heavy at times, will continue through the late afternoon hours before it winds down in evening. By then, we will have a solid 3-6″. The snow will wind down for a brief period (bit of a lull in the action), but will once again commence tomorrow night as the ULL (upper-level low) spins overhead. With the added energy and lift tomorrow night, expect another couple inches of snow. In total (by Wed AM), all of the immediate tri-state will see a solid 5-8″, with 8″+ just to the north/northwest of the metro. In addition, with an abundance of energy at the mid/upper levels, spotty thundersnow is possible midday tomorrow through tomorrow evening. If that occurs, rapid accumulation in a very short period of time (2″+ an hour rates) would be likely. As for schools, I expect all to be closed tomorrow. A delay would be inefficient as the snow will continue through the afternoon (same goes for an early-dismissal). Roads will become slick and hazardous tomorrow, continuing through much of Wed as temps will be well below freezing (harder to melt/clear). I will have hourly (bi-hourly if necessary) updates posted through the night, so stay tuned!
*WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY*
Temps across the tri-state are in the lower to middle 30s at this time, which is allowing for most of the precip to fall as light rain. I’ve been in contact with weather observers across the tri-state and there are spotty reports of sleet (most recently in SW Ham CO), though it won’t accumulate much due to the marginal surface temperatures. Most of the precip should fall as rain through midday as a brief tounge of warm air punches into the tri-state. However, as the area of low pressure begins to slide a bit further east, temps at all levels (surface to the upper-levels) will begin to crash, allowing the rain to change to snow. This should occur between 2-5pm (2pm for the NNW counties and 5pm for the SSE counties). Once this changeover to snow occurs, it will come down fairly heavily through tomorrow morning, with significant accumulations for everyone (see graphic below). Roads should be in decent shape through 4pm in most spots, but after that, expect conditions to deteriorate rather rapidly (about an hour or so after the changeover occurs). The main event will occur this evening through tomorrow morning when a large swath of moderate to heavy snow will slide through. Given the impressive dynamics in place/plenty of lift to work with, I wouldn’t rule out spotty thundersnow (enhanced bands of snow containing thunder/lightning). I don’t think that will be widespread, but don’t be surprised if you see a flash of lightning or hear a clap of thunder. If all goes as planned, expect very hazardous road conditions through Saturday (and even into Sun, depending on how much we end up with). Plan on not going anywhere Saturday…
Light to moderate snow will continue for another couple hours for the Cincy metro (and surrounding communities), with total accumulations of 3-5″. Roads are a mess in most spots, with many accidents being reported. Unfortunately, a deadly accident has occured in Franklin County (near Brookville) when two cars collided on US 52. Hamilton County is now under a LEVEL ONE SNOW EMERGENCY, which means that roads are in fairly bad shape, so extreme caution is urged (stay home if it’s not necessary to drive). A strong cold front is closing in on the tri-state, which will usher in colder temps and increased winds. Blowing and drifting of the fallen snow is likely today-tomorrow as wind gusts top out around 30mph.
The leading edge of the snow continues to inch closer, and is about 3-5 hours away (3 western counties, 5 eastern). Once the flakes begin to fly, expect the snow to become steady to heavy. Roads will deteriorate rapidly as temps will be hovering in the upper teens/lower 20s (all snow will accumulate, regardless of pre-treating). Most schools are on delays (proactive measure), though expect all to close. For days, I have been harping on the fact that some Gulf moisture will pulled into this storm (thus creating higher snow totals), and the radar verifies that thinking rather nicely!
Snow continues to expand across the midwest/central plains, with the leading edge reaching the IL/IN border right now. This storm has really taken stronger forward momentum (moving faster), thus expect the flakes to start flying between 3-5am, as opposed to 4-7am (as earlier thought). 3-6″ still looking right on track…
Snow continues to expand to our west, and will start falling here betwen 4-8am. Once it begins, it will quickly become steady (even heavy at times), and will accumulate on all surfaces (as temps will be in the upper teens). Travel will quickly become hazardous, thus expect most if not all schools in the tri-state to be closed. I’m currently out and about (updating via phone), but will have a more in-depth update posted within two hours.
A winter storm is headed towards the tri-state, with snow moving into the Cincy metro area between 8-10am tomorrow (6-8am western tri-state, 10-noon eastern), lasting through the evening (before tapering to light snow/snow showers). The energy aloft with this system will be rather impressive, thus expect the snow to come down at a decent clip for most of the day. Because of the cold air in the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere, snow to liquid ratios will be much higher than usual, averaging around 20:1 (20″ of snow for every 1″ of liquid), rather than the standard 10:1 we typically see. This update is rather short, but I will have much more in-depth coverage starting this afternoon, continuing through the storm. Stay tuned!
New Year’s Eve
Day: Rain/snow showers early, changing to snow showers during the afternoon with little to no accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s.
Night: A 40% chance of scattered snow showers, otherwise cloudy (and becoming windy late). Temps will rapidly fall through the 20s after midnight, so watch out for spotty slick spots on roads. Lows in the lower 20s.
New Year’s Day
Day: A 50% chance of snow showers, accumulating up to an inch. Breezy with wind chills in the single digits/teens. Highs in the middle 20s.
Night: A 30% chance of snow showers, with little additional accumulation. Breezy with wind chills dipping below zero at times. Lows in the middle teens.
Clouds are increasing across the tri-state ahead of a two stage storm system. Temps have begun to level off (were increasing at a steady pace earlier) due to evaporational cooling (cooling due to evaporating water droplets/ice crystals) and the increased cloud cover. However, even with marginal surface temps, the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are still cold enough to support snow (850s below 0 and the 540 critical thickness line is south of the river). Given the slowed warming and colder column, most areas will start as all snow this afternoon/evening, with rain mixing in later tonight for areas inside and SSW of the 275 loop. Areas NNE of the loop look to stay mostly snow through the entire event, adding up to an inch or two in spots. Given the marginal surface temps, however, most paved surfaces will stay wet.
