After an ice storm Friday into Saturday and heavy rain/strong storms Sunday night, this forecaster is getting a much-needed break (well, sort of). I have quite a lot to talk about, so let’s dive straight into things…

High pressure gains control of our weather for today with sunny skies and cooler temperatures. I’m expecting highs in the upper 30s north and lower 40s south (right around 40 in the metro area).

For tonight, expect continued clear to partly cloudy skies with lows dropping into the lower 20s.

Our next weather system enters the picture tomorrow. High pressure will slowly slide east as an area of low pressure develops and slides northeast out of Texas towards the region. This is where things get a bit tricky. With the high pressure slowly losing control of our weather, that’ll mean winds will be slow to switch from east/northeast to south/southwest. Some of the newer model guidance is actually showing the potential for a wintry mix to start vs all rain tomorrow afternoon. The GFS and NAM are the most aggressive with this, and actually start most locations along and north of the river as a snow/sleet/freezing rain mix.

Two things hinder this from becoming as bad as last Friday’s ice storm.

1) supply of cold air is modified and not “fresh”
2) what is left of the snow cover to our north will continue to fade

Those two reasons are leading me to believe that, while we may start as a mixture of wintry precip, it won’t last long and cause too much trouble. Of course that is based off of current data, which is subject to change. If the high pressure area can remain a bit stronger and move a bit slower, then we will stay colder longer. Also, if the northern and southern energy phase together a bit tighter and quicker, that’ll also lead to a colder solution and thus more of a wintry mess.

Given how terrible the models handled this past winter storm, I am definitely not confident in the forecast for the Wed-Sun time frame.

Additionally, some of the models develop a secondary low pressure center late Thursday that then slides to our SE. Some data points to this system throwing moisture back into the region (into the colder air) and causing some wintry trouble.

There is a lot to look over during the next couple of days while the models HOPEFULLY begin to come into agreement.

Having said that, here is my CURRENT forecast for the Cincy area given the available (or lack there-of) model agreement.

Today: Mostly sunny with highs around 40.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with lows around 22.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds with rain developing just after noon (period of snow, sleet, freezing rain possible at onset from river on north) with highs in the lower 40s.
Wednesday Night: Rain showers likely with lows in the middle 30s.
Thursday: Rain likely, possibly heavy at times, with highs in the upper 40s.
Thursday Night: Rain changing to a wintry mix then to all snow with temperatures falling into the middle 20s.
Friday: AM wintry mix, PM clearing with highs in the lower 40s.
Friday Night: Decreasing clouds with lows in the lower 20s.
Saturday: Increasing clouds, PM snow showers possible with highs in the lower 40s falling into the 20s by evening.
Saturday Night: Snow showers likely with lows in the lower 20s.
Sunday: Snow showers likely with highs in the upper 20s.
Sunday Night: Decreasing clouds with lows in the upper teens.

As stated above, forecast confidence is quite low from Wed onward as the developing storm(s) setup is quite complex. I’ll be back with an update later this afternoon and will post my latest thinking.

In the meantime, have yourselves a great Tuesday and enjoy the one dry day for a while!

NOON UPDATE:

There are some heavy bands of snow developing to the north of the metro, and that’s where they’ll stay (exactly as forecast, and where I have the highest accumulations on my map below). Snow showers/flurries are still likely for the metro, though at tops count on a dusting.

As for the storm arriving later tomorrow, there are some BIG CHANGES on the midday model runs. The GFS and GEM models both went much colder, with all frozen precip (no plain rain) for the entire Cincy tri-state area. The GFS portrays a low-end moderate icing event, while the GEM came in with some significant amounts. There are still two main models that disagree (the NAM and ECMWF), so we’re at a two-way split here. However, with the GEM jumping on board with the colder solution (as opposed to warm yesterday and last night), I’m beginning to get a bit concerned. I’ll have more on this when I enter storm tracking mode here later this afternoon. Check back often for updates, and help spread the word about this site if you can!

See you back here in a couple hours…

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster

9AM UPDATE:

Radar trends continue to suggest that my forecast from last night still looks pretty good. The latest high-res models continue to show our best shot for snow shower activity as being late this afternoon and into the evening. Still thinking a dusting should do it for the immediate tri-state area, though if any heavier snow showers do develop, some spots may pick up a bit more. I have plenty of tracking tools lined up for you all on the radar/satellite page, including the NEWEST installment…Interactive Storm Tracker. Check it out!

I’ll be back later this afternoon with another update. As always, check out my Facebook page and Twitter for real-time updates through the day!

Take care,

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster

PREVIOUS UPDATE

I’m a bit short on time tonight, so this will be a quick (but informative) update.

For starters, let’s take a look at today’s light snow event. A clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes and into Canada will drag a potent cold front through the area during the early afternoon hours. Expect winds to become quite gusty with the frontal passage, along with the development of snow showers by mid to late afternoon. The periods of snow showers will then continue through a good part of tonight before sliding east. While not a big event, watch out for the development of slick spots late this evening and overnight, especially north of town.

Here is my snowfall forecast for the clipper system:

Attention then turns to a stronger system for later Friday into Saturday. The forecast models are still all over the place, though there seems to be a trend towards a colder solution. A developing area of low pressure will slide just to the south of the tri-state area late Friday night and into Saturday. The cold air already in place will allow for the precipitation to begin as light snow, possibly mixed with sleet Friday evening. What happens next is still highly uncertain. Some models then change the precip to freezing rain, and keep it that way through the duration of the storm before ending as sleet and then snow. Other models warm us up and, after a brief wintry mix to start, change things over to plain rain. We’ll have a fresh blast of cold air to work with (from today’s frontal passage), which is leading me to believe that the colder solution on some of the models may not be far-fetched. I’m still not confident enough to go with all frozen precip given the extreme model disagreement, but will lean on a longer changeover to plain rain in my forecast given the reasoning above.

So, let’s get to the point shall we?

Today: Increasing clouds with snow showers developing by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures topping out in the middle 30s early before falling into the 20s by sunset. Gusty winds, mainly later in the day.

Tonight: Snow showers ending after midnight with continued gusty winds. Lows in the middle teens (potentially lower teens if clouds can clear fast enough).

Friday: Clouds increasing through the day. Light snow or a snow/sleet mix developing by evening. Highs around the freezing mark.

Friday Night: Light snow/sleet changing to freezing rain. As temperatures rise, the wintry mix will then change over to plain rain (especially from the immediate Cincinnati area on south) by sunrise. Light snow and ice accumulations likely. Lows around 30, rising to the middle 30s by sunrise or shortly thereafter.

Saturday: Rain, changing to snow by early afternoon. Additional light snow accumulations possible. Highs in the middle 30s, falling into the 20s by late afternoon.

Saturday Night: Skies clearing. Lows in the lower 20s.

I apologize for no seven day graphic in this update, but expect that to return in my update this evening!

As for the Fri-Sat storm, there is a quite a lack of confidence. There are so many parameters to analyze in a situation like this (warm air trying to overrun cold air at the surface), which is even further aggravating when the models are in disagreement. I’ll keep monitoring the trends over the next few model packages through the day today, and will hopefully have a better idea of what you all should expect in my next update!

There is potential for this to be a rather significant winter storm for the region, but also the same amount of potential for the warm air to overtake the area, resulting in little to no problems (quick changeover to plain rain).

Stay tuned…

I update my Facebook page and Twitter through the day, so feel free to check both of those out!

http://www.facebook.com/TrevorColeWeather and http://www.twitter.com/TrevorColeWx

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster

Happy Wednesday everyone! There is a lot to talk about, so let’s dive straight into things…

We’ll start with today. The front that moved through yesterday with all the rain and storms is now well east of the area, which means we’ll be dealing with WNW winds and chilly temperatures. I expect highs to top out in the lower 30s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

For Thursday, I’m tracking the clipper system mentioned in last night’s update. There is still quite a bit of model uncertainty, which makes for somewhat of a tricky forecast. We’ll start the day with partly sunny skies, but clouds will quickly move in by midday ahead of the advancing clipper. The main low pressure center is expected to stay well to the north across the lakes, but the cold front plowing through our neck of the woods should provide enough lift for the development of a band of light snow. This is where the model uncertainty comes into play. Some of the models keep all of the accumulation to the north of the metro (around I-70), while some bring a nice 1-2″ into the tri-state and greater Cincinnati area. Given the uncertainty, I decided to go with the likelihood of snow showers Thursday afternoon, with most of the light accumulations remaining to the north of the metro. I’ll monitor for any changes as these clipper systems like to shift their tracks on the models even hours before an event. The clipper and front also help to usher in another bout of cold, with temperatures dropping into the lower to middle teens Thursday night/Friday morning!

Attention then turns to another developing storm system for the late Fri-Sat time frame. What makes this storm even more tricky is that it’ll be influenced by the Thu clipper. As it appears now, it looks like the precip will start as a wintry mix (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) Friday night before changing to a cold rain on Saturday. With this solution, we’d only be looking at a few hours of an ice threat, and any ice accumulation would be quickly washed away as temperatures rise above freezing. If the clipper tracks further south and allows for the cold air to entrench itself in the Ohio Valley a bit more, we could be looking at more of a snow/ice threat versus primarily plain rain. I took a blend at this point, but will closely monitor any adjustments.

We get a quick break for the Sat night-Sun afternoon time frame before another system works into the picture. As of now it looks like that low pressure center should remain safely to the north, allowing for warmer temperatures and plain rain.

We get another brief break for Mon before yet ANOTHER storm takes aim on the tri-state for late Mon night-Wed. Like the late Sat/Sun storm, that low also looks to track in a fashion that’ll allow for mild temperatures and rain/t’storms. There seems to be some model consistency that heavy rain will be a threat, along with potentially a few stronger thunderstorms. I’ll continue to monitor.

As you can see, we have quite a lot of action to talk about in the weather world, and you can bet your bottom dollar that I’ll be here tracking it for you (as always, of course)!

Stay tuned for forecast adjustments, and have yourself a GREAT hump day!

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster

The title says it all, and if you’ve lived in the Ohio Valley as long as I have, you know exactly what I mean. We’re about to ride one heck of a “temperature roller coaster” over the next week and beyond, so make sure you are securely fastened inside the vehicle and as always, no personal photography devices are permitted.

Getting beyond the terribly cliched description of a temperature swing, let’s dive straight into things.

We start the week with an area of low pressure developing to our west. This system will slide NE through Indiana during the day today, which places the entire tri-state in the warm sector. Expect rain, heavy at times, to persist through the morning before winding down by midday. You may even hear a few rumbles of thunder as well. The rain will become much lighter by afternoon as the cold front swings through the area. Temperatures will be quite warm for the first part of the day, and should top out in the lower 50s area-wide. The front will pass through during the mid afternoon hours, with falling temperatures and gusty winds expected in its wake. I included some flurry or snow shower action in the forecast as any leftover moisture will fall as snow later Tuesday night and into Wednesday. They won’t be widespread, but when combined with falling temperatures, may lead to some slick spots Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

Other than a few passing flurries, Wednesday looks quiet and cold with highs barely making it to the freezing mark.

Our next system arrives on Thursday. It’s a clipper and won’t have a ton of moisture to work with, but the strong temperature gradient it will be riding should allow for the development of snow showers through the day. As of now the models don’t look overly impressive, and actually keep the bulk of the accumulations to the north of the immediate tri-state. As is the case with all clipper systems, they tend to be quite tricky to forecast. As it stands now, the models crank out up to an inch of accumulation, but I’ll keep an eye on things and will notify you of any forecast changes. Expect highs in the upper 20s on Thursday.

The Friday-Saturday time frame also presents some forecast challenges as we’ll have a system to our west/southwest sliding east/northeast. One model (the GFS) keeps temperatures below freezing the entire time with snow changing to freezing rain. The rest of the models have begun to track the low further north, allowing for any frozen precipitation to change to plain rain. I’m not overly confident in the forecast at this point, and thus went with a wintry mix changing to rain. If the GFS were to verify, we’d be looking at an inch or so of snow changing to around 0.20-0.25″ of freezing rain. That model solution would lead to a multitude of travel problems across the area, so I’ll keep watching to see if it joins the “wintry mix to rain” party or the others switch around.

Looking into the long-range, the roller coaster ride of temperatures will continue with brief surges of warmth followed by blasts of bitter Arctic air. In a sense, the “battle of the air masses” is setting up shop overhead, which always leads to tricky forecasting. From my years of studying weather patterns, one thing is for sure. In this kind of a setup, expect to see it all; heavy rain (and even strong thunderstorms), warm air surges, Arctic cold blasts, and wintry precipitation.

You may be hearing that “winter is over” or something along those lines, but nothing could be further from the truth. We have just over six weeks left of meteorological winter (which ends March 1st), and nearly ten weeks left of calender-based winter. We have made it this far without any SIGNIFICANT wintry precipitation, but don’t bank on that to mean that we’ll go the rest of the winter without any. I went with 25-35″ total snowfall for this season, and while that will likely be too much in the end, I still think we’ll do some catching up over the remainder of the winter.

Stay tuned for more on the Thu and Fri/Sat systems, and enjoy the roller coaster ride of temperatures! You can find my latest seven day outlook posted on the appropriate page above.

Take care, and have a great Tuesday (despite the rain)!

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster
CincyForecast.com
Facebook.com/TrevorColeWeather
Twitter.com/TrevorColeWx
AbsoluteVorticity.com

We have made it through the coldest BLAST of Arctic air so far this season across the Ohio Valley, and temperatures will begin to increase over the next couple of days (I can hear the cheering). The deep trough (and lobe of cold air) is sliding east allowing for a change in wind direction. This will ultimately lead to a nice warming trend, with lower 50s likely on Friday. The models have lost the idea of any weak system impacting the tri-state later Wednesday, so I’m glad I refrained from adding precip chances into my last forecast update.

Our attention then turns to the weekend system that I brought up yesterday. There is still a large amount of model uncertainty of what will happen, which makes the forecast a bit tricky this early in the game. A couple of the foreign models (the Euro and the Canadian) are the furthest north with the precipitation Saturday into Sunday and would yield to rain or a rain/snow mix changing to snow showers. The majority of the US models don’t show much and keep the system weak and to the south.

Because of this uncertainty, I decided to keep precip chances low this weekend, though will offer a little insight on why I am hesitant to completely write off the system. First, the supply of cold air by the end of the work week will be located to our W/NW. This is important because of my next point. If the two branches phase (join, clash, meet, etc), that deep supply of cold air will be easily tapped and create a rather interesting situation across the region. If the phase happens too far to our east, we’re left with a brief cold snap and flurries. If it happens further west we would be in the zone for accumulating snowfall (potentially significant). If the phase doesn’t happen at all (like some of the US models show), then we don’t really cool down all that much (relative to the last couple days), and see either no precip or just showers (because temperatures would be too warm).

I added “needs watching” to this period on the seven day for this very reason. It’s a pretty complex and tricky forecast and could go either way. I have the urge to keep an eye on this one as the setup is rather fishy and notorious for being pretty rewarding to snow lovers across the region. The evening and overnight model runs will begin to cycle in shortly, and I’ll post on those later Wednesday.

For now, here is the latest CincyForecast.com extended outlook!

Take care and have yourselves a great (and warmer) Wednesday!

-Trevor Cole

I’m sure I wasn’t the only one who has had a tough time adjusting to this cold weather even though it is to be expected this time of year! December’s mild and wet pattern really spoiled us, and for those who enjoyed it, get ready for even more changes.

The heavy snow showers and squalls seen on Monday will be less widespread for your Tuesday, but expect spotty flurries and snow showers to be possible at just about anytime through the day. Along with the flakes, we’ll once again hold in the 20s, with most barely making it into the middle 20s for daytime highs. There may be a few breaks in the clouds, though they will be few and far between.

Attention then turns to a clipper system for Wednesday. The GFS (one forecast model I use) is pretty unimpressive and shows flurries at most for areas mainly north and east of the metro.

The NAM (another model) shows a similar output.

The CMC (Canadian model) is a bit more generous in showing a period of light snow for much of the tri-state with minor accumulations.

The ECMWF (European model, strong accuracy) is in agreement with the GFS and NAM.

By this point you can tell why I didn’t put any flakes in the forecast for Wednesday, but I’ll monitor for any changes.

We then clear out and warm up for Thu-Fri before another system approaches later Saturday into Sunday. We again have model disagreement. Let’s take a look.

The GFS keeps most of the precipitation south of the river, though we’ll have to watch for any adjustment north in future runs. Looking at a cross section of the atmosphere, all levels will be cold enough for rain to snow showers across NKY, though surface temperatures won’t support much in the way of accumulation.

The CMC is a bit further north with the precipitation and is also colder.

Finally, the ECMWF is the warmest of them all and also a bit drier.

Upon absorbing the above information, I went with a bit of a warmer solution and a shower chance for areas along and south of the river. The forecast is subject to change, and I’ll continue to monitor.

Going even further ahead into the long range, there do appear to be changes beginning to take place. I’ll have more on that in the next update, but I’ll leave you with a hint: January will start out much like Dec with ups and downs in the temperature department and rain and snow chances with a continued active storm track. However, by mid-month it appears that changes will begin to take place globally that will allow for cold air to dive into the E US more easily, and that means we’ll have to watch for increased snow chances. I fully expect the rest of the winter (especially late Jan through Mar) to feature many blasts of cold air and accumulating snow chances. We got off easy in December, but don’t get used to it!

Take care and have a great Tuesday!

-Trevor Cole

Short on time for the update tonight, but here is an updated seven day outlook.

Happy Thursday everyone! We’re finally being treated with a brief stretch of drier weather, though it’ll only last a couple days. Expect temperatures to top out in the upper 40s across the tri-state today and around 50 tomorrow. Both today and tomorrow will feature lots of sunshine courtesy of an area of high pressure that moved in after Tuesday’s rain and snow.

For a look at the weekend, check out my latest seven day outlook below!

-Forecaster Trevor Cole

Happy Wednesday, everyone! After a nice break from the rain, another storm is on the way. An area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes during the day before another system slides in tonight into tomorrow. This will allow for periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially later this afternoon through early Thursday morning. I’m not expecting any severe weather, though some of the storms this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty winds, small hail, and brief heavy rainfall. The stronger system for later today and tonight will produce a greater coverage of rain, some of which may be heavy. I’m expecting anywhere between 1-2″ of rainfall by Thursday morning.

A weak system will then swing through Friday night into Saturday. With the cold temperatures in place at this time (lows around freezing), there is a chance we’ll see some flakes flying. I’m expecting no accumulation, but it is a sign that a colder weather and snow chances are not far off…

For the rest of the forecast, check out my seven day outlook!

Have a great day!

-Trevor Cole, Forecaster

The chilliest air of the season has arrived in the Ohio Valley thanks to the strong low pressure system and associated cold front that passed through on Wednesday. The last couple days have been especially raw with the cool air and what seemed like non-stop rain. The good news is that the rain chances are coming to an end for the time being, which will help it feel a bit better outside. There is even better news in the seven day outlook, and I’ll get to that soon!

Friday-Saturday

Friday is looking rather chilly with highs in the lower 50s. Skies will begin to clear out through the daytime hours, which should make things a bit nicer when outside. However, the clearing skies present a new issue…frost. I’m forecasting a low temperature of around 34 degrees by Saturday morning, with some outlying areas likely approaching or dipping slightly below freezing. Frost advisories haven’t been issued yet, though they will likely go up later Friday. Be sure to take the necessary precautions if you have any vegetation that is susceptible to cold temperatures.

For Saturday, temperatures begin to creep up a bit as winds become southwesterly across the region. It is looking like an overall brilliant day. The change in winds will also help prevent a second night of frosty temperatures.

Sunday-Tuesday

Sunday brings even warmer temperatures with highs in the lower to middle 60s. A weak cold front will pass through during the evening hours, which will allow for the development of a few scattered showers.

Skies clear out for Monday and Tuesday with continued warming. In fact, temperatures look to hit the 70 degree mark on Tuesday!

Wednesday-Thursday

A large storm system will begin to track through the area on Wednesday in the form of a warm front. This front will help spark the development of showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong.

The low and cold front will then swing through the tri-state on Thursday, bringing with it a high chance for rain and thunderstorms. It’s a week away and much can change, but the models have been locking in on the potential for some very heavy rainfall with this system for Thursday, followed by another shot of chilly air. Some of the models even hint at a flake or two as the rain ends and colder air arrives late Thursday. Something to keep an eye on…

Here is my latest seven day forecast…

Take care, and have a great Friday…TGIF!

-Trevor Cole, Forecaster