Weak System Saturday, Major Storm Potential Sun-Mon

Just when you thought we couldn’t POSSIBLY see more snow after the three consecutive winter storms, there is more in the forecast! Friday looks to be a rather nice day overall with partly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 30s. Our first shot of wintry weather arrives on Saturday as a weak disturbance passes through the tri-state, bringing with it light snow. Given the marginal surface temperatures, accumulation on roads is not expected (up to an inch on grassy/metal surfaces). Attention then turns to a potentially significant winter storm for Sun afternoon through Mon. An area of low pressure is progged to slide out of the Plains into the Ohio Valley. At this point in time, I’m thinking we run the risk of icing issues (freezing rain/sleet) as there looks to be a sneaky layer of low-level cold air in place for much if not all of the event (esp along/north of the Ohio River). Given the thick snowcover in place, I’m having a hard time believing that the warm air takes over as easily as some models are showing. Given that we are still three days out from showtime, much can change. The spread of various model solutions is rather large, which makes it hard to pinpoint exactly what will happen. By tomorrow evening, I believe that a solution should be ironed out, thus I’ll have a more confident forecast. This storm has a lot of potential, so STAY TUNED!