We have made it through the coldest BLAST of Arctic air so far this season across the Ohio Valley, and temperatures will begin to increase over the next couple of days (I can hear the cheering). The deep trough (and lobe of cold air) is sliding east allowing for a change in wind direction. This will ultimately lead to a nice warming trend, with lower 50s likely on Friday. The models have lost the idea of any weak system impacting the tri-state later Wednesday, so I’m glad I refrained from adding precip chances into my last forecast update.
Our attention then turns to the weekend system that I brought up yesterday. There is still a large amount of model uncertainty of what will happen, which makes the forecast a bit tricky this early in the game. A couple of the foreign models (the Euro and the Canadian) are the furthest north with the precipitation Saturday into Sunday and would yield to rain or a rain/snow mix changing to snow showers. The majority of the US models don’t show much and keep the system weak and to the south.
Because of this uncertainty, I decided to keep precip chances low this weekend, though will offer a little insight on why I am hesitant to completely write off the system. First, the supply of cold air by the end of the work week will be located to our W/NW. This is important because of my next point. If the two branches phase (join, clash, meet, etc), that deep supply of cold air will be easily tapped and create a rather interesting situation across the region. If the phase happens too far to our east, we’re left with a brief cold snap and flurries. If it happens further west we would be in the zone for accumulating snowfall (potentially significant). If the phase doesn’t happen at all (like some of the US models show), then we don’t really cool down all that much (relative to the last couple days), and see either no precip or just showers (because temperatures would be too warm).
I added “needs watching” to this period on the seven day for this very reason. It’s a pretty complex and tricky forecast and could go either way. I have the urge to keep an eye on this one as the setup is rather fishy and notorious for being pretty rewarding to snow lovers across the region. The evening and overnight model runs will begin to cycle in shortly, and I’ll post on those later Wednesday.
For now, here is the latest CincyForecast.com extended outlook!
Take care and have yourselves a great (and warmer) Wednesday!
-Trevor Cole
