Unsettled Pattern Developing

Happy Wednesday everyone! There is a lot to talk about, so let’s dive straight into things…

We’ll start with today. The front that moved through yesterday with all the rain and storms is now well east of the area, which means we’ll be dealing with WNW winds and chilly temperatures. I expect highs to top out in the lower 30s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

For Thursday, I’m tracking the clipper system mentioned in last night’s update. There is still quite a bit of model uncertainty, which makes for somewhat of a tricky forecast. We’ll start the day with partly sunny skies, but clouds will quickly move in by midday ahead of the advancing clipper. The main low pressure center is expected to stay well to the north across the lakes, but the cold front plowing through our neck of the woods should provide enough lift for the development of a band of light snow. This is where the model uncertainty comes into play. Some of the models keep all of the accumulation to the north of the metro (around I-70), while some bring a nice 1-2″ into the tri-state and greater Cincinnati area. Given the uncertainty, I decided to go with the likelihood of snow showers Thursday afternoon, with most of the light accumulations remaining to the north of the metro. I’ll monitor for any changes as these clipper systems like to shift their tracks on the models even hours before an event. The clipper and front also help to usher in another bout of cold, with temperatures dropping into the lower to middle teens Thursday night/Friday morning!

Attention then turns to another developing storm system for the late Fri-Sat time frame. What makes this storm even more tricky is that it’ll be influenced by the Thu clipper. As it appears now, it looks like the precip will start as a wintry mix (snow, sleet, and freezing rain) Friday night before changing to a cold rain on Saturday. With this solution, we’d only be looking at a few hours of an ice threat, and any ice accumulation would be quickly washed away as temperatures rise above freezing. If the clipper tracks further south and allows for the cold air to entrench itself in the Ohio Valley a bit more, we could be looking at more of a snow/ice threat versus primarily plain rain. I took a blend at this point, but will closely monitor any adjustments.

We get a quick break for the Sat night-Sun afternoon time frame before another system works into the picture. As of now it looks like that low pressure center should remain safely to the north, allowing for warmer temperatures and plain rain.

We get another brief break for Mon before yet ANOTHER storm takes aim on the tri-state for late Mon night-Wed. Like the late Sat/Sun storm, that low also looks to track in a fashion that’ll allow for mild temperatures and rain/t’storms. There seems to be some model consistency that heavy rain will be a threat, along with potentially a few stronger thunderstorms. I’ll continue to monitor.

As you can see, we have quite a lot of action to talk about in the weather world, and you can bet your bottom dollar that I’ll be here tracking it for you (as always, of course)!

Stay tuned for forecast adjustments, and have yourself a GREAT hump day!

-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster