NOON UPDATE:
There are some heavy bands of snow developing to the north of the metro, and that’s where they’ll stay (exactly as forecast, and where I have the highest accumulations on my map below). Snow showers/flurries are still likely for the metro, though at tops count on a dusting.
As for the storm arriving later tomorrow, there are some BIG CHANGES on the midday model runs. The GFS and GEM models both went much colder, with all frozen precip (no plain rain) for the entire Cincy tri-state area. The GFS portrays a low-end moderate icing event, while the GEM came in with some significant amounts. There are still two main models that disagree (the NAM and ECMWF), so we’re at a two-way split here. However, with the GEM jumping on board with the colder solution (as opposed to warm yesterday and last night), I’m beginning to get a bit concerned. I’ll have more on this when I enter storm tracking mode here later this afternoon. Check back often for updates, and help spread the word about this site if you can!
See you back here in a couple hours…
-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster
9AM UPDATE:
Radar trends continue to suggest that my forecast from last night still looks pretty good. The latest high-res models continue to show our best shot for snow shower activity as being late this afternoon and into the evening. Still thinking a dusting should do it for the immediate tri-state area, though if any heavier snow showers do develop, some spots may pick up a bit more. I have plenty of tracking tools lined up for you all on the radar/satellite page, including the NEWEST installment…Interactive Storm Tracker. Check it out!
I’ll be back later this afternoon with another update. As always, check out my Facebook page and Twitter for real-time updates through the day!
Take care,
-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster
PREVIOUS UPDATE
I’m a bit short on time tonight, so this will be a quick (but informative) update.
For starters, let’s take a look at today’s light snow event. A clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes and into Canada will drag a potent cold front through the area during the early afternoon hours. Expect winds to become quite gusty with the frontal passage, along with the development of snow showers by mid to late afternoon. The periods of snow showers will then continue through a good part of tonight before sliding east. While not a big event, watch out for the development of slick spots late this evening and overnight, especially north of town.
Here is my snowfall forecast for the clipper system:
Attention then turns to a stronger system for later Friday into Saturday. The forecast models are still all over the place, though there seems to be a trend towards a colder solution. A developing area of low pressure will slide just to the south of the tri-state area late Friday night and into Saturday. The cold air already in place will allow for the precipitation to begin as light snow, possibly mixed with sleet Friday evening. What happens next is still highly uncertain. Some models then change the precip to freezing rain, and keep it that way through the duration of the storm before ending as sleet and then snow. Other models warm us up and, after a brief wintry mix to start, change things over to plain rain. We’ll have a fresh blast of cold air to work with (from today’s frontal passage), which is leading me to believe that the colder solution on some of the models may not be far-fetched. I’m still not confident enough to go with all frozen precip given the extreme model disagreement, but will lean on a longer changeover to plain rain in my forecast given the reasoning above.
So, let’s get to the point shall we? 
Today: Increasing clouds with snow showers developing by mid to late afternoon. Temperatures topping out in the middle 30s early before falling into the 20s by sunset. Gusty winds, mainly later in the day.
Tonight: Snow showers ending after midnight with continued gusty winds. Lows in the middle teens (potentially lower teens if clouds can clear fast enough).
Friday: Clouds increasing through the day. Light snow or a snow/sleet mix developing by evening. Highs around the freezing mark.
Friday Night: Light snow/sleet changing to freezing rain. As temperatures rise, the wintry mix will then change over to plain rain (especially from the immediate Cincinnati area on south) by sunrise. Light snow and ice accumulations likely. Lows around 30, rising to the middle 30s by sunrise or shortly thereafter.
Saturday: Rain, changing to snow by early afternoon. Additional light snow accumulations possible. Highs in the middle 30s, falling into the 20s by late afternoon.
Saturday Night: Skies clearing. Lows in the lower 20s.
I apologize for no seven day graphic in this update, but expect that to return in my update this evening!
As for the Fri-Sat storm, there is a quite a lack of confidence. There are so many parameters to analyze in a situation like this (warm air trying to overrun cold air at the surface), which is even further aggravating when the models are in disagreement. I’ll keep monitoring the trends over the next few model packages through the day today, and will hopefully have a better idea of what you all should expect in my next update!
There is potential for this to be a rather significant winter storm for the region, but also the same amount of potential for the warm air to overtake the area, resulting in little to no problems (quick changeover to plain rain).
Stay tuned…
I update my Facebook page and Twitter through the day, so feel free to check both of those out!
http://www.facebook.com/TrevorColeWeather and http://www.twitter.com/TrevorColeWx
-Trevor Cole, WOUB-TV Forecaster
